What Is Going On

The Iran conflict, explained plainly

01 Key players

Who is involved and what do they want?

The conflict involves a web of state and non-state actors with overlapping and often conflicting interests. Here are the main players you'll see referenced in daily coverage.

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Iran
Islamic Republic ยท Primary actor
A theocratic republic governed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran seeks regional dominance, opposes US and Israeli influence in the Middle East, and has pursued nuclear capabilities. It supports a network of proxy forces across the region known as the "Axis of Resistance."
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United States
Major power ยท Sanctions enforcer
The US has maintained stringent economic sanctions on Iran since the Islamic Revolution and is Israel's primary ally. Under successive administrations, the US has alternated between maximum pressure campaigns and diplomatic engagement. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain and patrols the Persian Gulf.
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Israel
Regional power ยท Military actor
Iran and Israel are in a state of undeclared conflict. Iran does not recognise Israel's right to exist. Israel views Iran's nuclear programme as an existential threat and has conducted covert operations against Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities. The two countries exchanged direct strikes in 2024.
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Saudi Arabia
Regional rival ยท OPEC member
Iran and Saudi Arabia are rivals across religious (Shia vs Sunni), political, and economic lines. Saudi Arabia leads the Gulf states and is deeply wary of Iranian regional expansion. China brokered a surprise normalisation deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, though tensions remain.
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Russia
Strategic partner ยท UN Security Council
Russia and Iran have deepened ties, particularly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Iran has supplied Russia with drones used in Ukraine. Russia blocks or dilutes UN Security Council resolutions targeting Iran and shares an interest in undermining US-led international order.
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China
Economic partner ยท UN Security Council
China is Iran's largest trading partner and purchases Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions. China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran in 2021 and brokered the Iran-Saudi normalisation. Like Russia, it shields Iran at the UN Security Council.
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Hezbollah
Iran proxy ยท Lebanon-based
A Lebanese Shia political party and militant group heavily funded and armed by Iran. Hezbollah has fought multiple wars with Israel and maintains a significant arsenal of rockets and missiles. It is designated a terrorist organisation by Australia, the US, and the EU.
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Houthis (Ansar Allah)
Iran-aligned ยท Yemen-based
A Yemeni rebel group that controls much of northern Yemen and is aligned with Iran. Since late 2023, the Houthis have launched drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians. This has significantly disrupted global trade routes.
02 Geography

Why the Strait of Hormuz changes everything

The Persian Gulf is one of the most strategically important bodies of water on Earth. At its mouth sits the Strait of Hormuz โ€” a narrow channel just 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, bordered by Iran to the north and Oman and the UAE to the south.

Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day, along with significant quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG). There is no viable alternative route โ€” tankers carrying Gulf oil to Asia, Europe, and the Americas must pass through it.

This geography gives Iran enormous leverage. Any Iranian action to disrupt, mine, or close the strait โ€” even partially โ€” would immediately spike global oil prices and send shockwaves through every economy on earth, including Australia's.

The Red Sea is a secondary chokepoint. Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have been attacking commercial ships there since late 2023. Many shipping companies have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and thousands of dollars to each voyage โ€” costs that flow through to consumers globally.

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Why Australian geography matters here

Australia sits on the other side of the Indian Ocean from the Persian Gulf. Almost all oil imported by Australia's Asian trading partners โ€” Japan, South Korea, China โ€” transits the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption affects demand for Australian LNG as a substitute or complement.

Australian naval vessels periodically operate in the region as part of multinational coalitions protecting shipping. The RAAF has conducted surveillance missions over the Middle East. Australia has both an alliance commitment (ANZUS) and a direct economic stake in regional stability.

03 Timeline

How we got here

The current crisis has roots going back decades. Here are the key moments that shaped the situation today.

1979
Islamic Revolution
The Shah of Iran is overthrown. Ayatollah Khomeini establishes the Islamic Republic. Iran seizes US embassy staff as hostages. Relations between Iran and the West break down fundamentally.
2002
Nuclear programme revealed
Iran's secret nuclear enrichment facilities are revealed publicly. The international community begins pushing for inspections and limits on Iran's nuclear capabilities.
2015
JCPOA nuclear deal signed
Iran agrees to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed by Iran, the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China.
2018
US withdraws from nuclear deal
President Trump withdraws the US from the JCPOA and reimposed sweeping sanctions. Iran gradually begins exceeding the deal's limits on uranium enrichment.
Jan 2020
Assassination of Soleimani
The US kills Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, in a drone strike at Baghdad airport. Iran retaliates with missile strikes on US bases in Iraq and vows "severe revenge."
Oct 2023
Hamas attacks Israel; war begins in Gaza
Hamas launches a devastating attack on Israel from Gaza. Israel declares war. Iran-backed groups across the region โ€” Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias โ€” begin attacking US forces and Israeli interests. The conflict widens.
Apr 2024
Iran and Israel exchange direct strikes
For the first time in history, Iran and Israel exchange direct attacks on each other's territory. Iran launches over 300 drones and missiles at Israel; Israel strikes back at targets inside Iran. A dangerous new threshold is crossed.
2025โ€“26
Escalating regional conflict
The conflict continues to evolve. Iran's nuclear programme approaches weapons-grade enrichment levels. The Houthis continue Red Sea attacks. Diplomatic efforts continue alongside military pressure. The situation remains highly fluid โ€” see today's briefing for the latest.
04 Australia's stake

Why this matters to Australians specifically

Australia is geographically distant from the Middle East but deeply connected to it through alliances, energy markets, and trade relationships.

Energy prices. Australia imports most of its liquid fuel. When Persian Gulf tensions spike oil prices globally, Australians pay more at the petrol bowser and for everything that gets transported by truck or ship โ€” which is nearly everything.

LNG exports. Australia is one of the world's largest LNG exporters. When Middle Eastern supply is threatened, Asian buyers look to Australia as an alternative. This can push Australian domestic gas prices higher but also boosts export revenue. It's a double-edged sword.

Alliance obligations. Australia is a formal US ally under ANZUS. When the US deploys forces to the Persian Gulf region, Australia is often asked to contribute โ€” with ships, aircraft, or intelligence assets. Australian governments must navigate between alliance loyalty and independent foreign policy.

Trade routes. A significant portion of Australian exports to Europe and the Middle East pass through or near the conflict zone. Red Sea disruption adds costs and delays to Australian shipping.

Iranian-Australian community. Australia has a substantial Iranian diaspora, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. Many have family in Iran and are personally affected by the conflict, sanctions, and any potential escalation.

Government position. Australia has consistently supported a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear programme, backed international sanctions, and maintained the Iran-Saudi Arabia diplomatic normalisation. Australia designates Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation.

05 Glossary

Terms you'll encounter in daily coverage

IRGC
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran's elite military force, separate from the regular army. Controls Iran's missile programme and overseas proxy networks. Designated a terrorist organisation by the US and some allies.
JCPOA
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. The US withdrew in 2018; attempts to revive it have repeatedly stalled.
Strait of Hormuz
The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which approximately 20% of global oil supply passes daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close it during tensions.
Axis of Resistance
Iran's term for the network of allied groups it supports across the region โ€” including Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Houthis (Yemen), and various Iraqi militias.
Uranium enrichment
The process of increasing the concentration of the U-235 isotope in uranium. Low enrichment (3-5%) is used for power. Weapons-grade requires 90%+. Iran has enriched to 60%+, well beyond civilian needs.
Sanctions
Economic penalties imposed by the US, EU, and UN on Iran to pressure it over its nuclear programme and regional behaviour. They restrict Iran's ability to sell oil, access the international banking system, and import certain goods.
Proxy war
A conflict where opposing powers support different sides rather than fighting each other directly. Iran funds and arms groups across the region to extend its influence and fight adversaries (particularly the US and Israel) at arm's length.
Supreme Leader
Iran's highest political and religious authority. Currently Ali Khamenei, who has held the position since 1989. The Supreme Leader has final say over military, nuclear, and foreign policy decisions โ€” above the elected president.
LNG
Liquefied Natural Gas. Natural gas cooled to -162ยฐC for shipping by tanker. Australia is one of the world's top LNG exporters. Persian Gulf LNG (mainly from Qatar) competes with Australian LNG in Asian markets.
ANZUS
Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty. The 1951 alliance that obligates Australia and the US to consult and act in response to threats to each other's security in the Pacific โ€” broadly interpreted to include Middle East deployments.